ethnicity and presidency, indonesia

map of indonesia

So, how likely is it that people of non-Javanese ethnic will be elected as President of Indonesia?

Indonesian's elected president (Habibie was not elected, he was VP turning into P) has always been a Javanese-born. It's not exactly the problem whether Indonesian people will vote for a non-Javanese ethnic to be their president, it's the road to be a candidate that's harsh.

There are two ways one can be a presidential candidate: through political party or through independent means. Political parties, however big portion they have in mind for people's greater good, can't achieve that if they don't get a seat in the government's forum (MPR, DPR, governor, you name it). The seats are supposed to be won by vote, too. Now if you, as the party's head, have an unpopular presidential candidate, that surely will affect (not in a good way) your party's probability of having many seats, if any, in the said forum.

Like I said, Indonesian's elected president has always been a Javanese-born. There's little chance political party leaders will be willing to break tradition by having someone out of Javanese ethnicity as their candidate.

As for independent path, I personally know someone who's trying to run for major in Surabaya. Basically he did that because he was a supporter for incumbent major, who would be kicked out of office if there's nobody to challenge her in the next (now past) election. Google Risma's controversy for further information, Risma is the incumbent major mentioned above.

This guy said it was hell trying to meet the requirements to run for major. If I'm not mistaken, one of the problem was collecting letters of support. He needed X amount of people willing to sign the letter of support. That was independent path for running as a major. Just imagine how much tougher the hell one must go through in order to run as president by independent path.